NATO could be forced to fire the first shot against Russia as Vladimir Putins escalating shadow war on Europe pushes the alliance toward a possible shift in strategy, a top admiral has warned.
Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of Nato’s Military Committee, said the alliance may be left with no choice but to adopt a preemptive posture, a significant shift from its long standing policy of reacting only after provocation.
Speaking to the Financial Times, Dragone said NATO is now reassessing its stance in the face of mounting Russian sabotage operations across Europe.
He explained, “We are studying everything. On cyber, we are kind of reactive.
Being more aggressive or being proactive instead of reactive is something that we are thinking about.”
For years, European nations have linked a series of fires, explosions, undersea cable cuts and cyberattacks to the Kremlin.
Incidents have ranged from a blaze at a Ukrainian owned warehouse in east London to the severing of Baltic Sea cables and airspace violations involving unidentified drones, including one that shut down Copenhagen airport.
Dragone said that cyber retaliation would be the simplest and quickest option since many NATO members possess offensive cyber capabilities, but responding to physical sabotage or drone incursions would be more complex while still possible.
He added that under certain circumstances a “preemptive strike” could be considered defensive, though he acknowledged it was “further away from our normal way of thinking and behaviour” and raised questions of legality, jurisdiction and responsibility.
Several NATO member states, especially those in eastern Europe, have been urging the alliance to abandon its purely reactive stance.
A Baltic diplomat told the Financial Times, “If all we do is continue being reactive, we just invite Russia to keep trying, keep hurting us.
Hybrid warfare is asymmetric. It costs them little and us a lot. We need to be more inventive.”
Moscow responded angrily to the idea of a more forward leaning NATO.
Denis Gonchar, Russia’s ambassador to Belgium, accused the alliance of “intimidating its population with the Kremlin’s non existent plans to attack” and claimed member states were “preparing for a major war with Russia.”
While NATO debates its posture, high level diplomatic talks between the United States and Ukraine continued in Florida as both sides attempt to hammer out the framework of a potential peace deal.
US Senator Marco Rubio said he was cautiously optimistic, stating, “We continue to be realistic about how difficult this is, but optimistic, particularly given the fact that as we’ve made progress, I think there is a shared vision here that this is not just about ending the war. It is about securing Ukraine’s future, a future that we hope will be more prosperous than it has ever been.”
Rubio acknowledged the complexity of negotiations, saying, “There are a lot of moving parts, and obviously there’s another party involved here.
That will have to be a part of the equation, and that will continue later this week, when Mr Witkoff travels to Moscow.”
Steve Witkoff, President Trumps special envoy, is expected to meet Russian officials as negotiations move forward.
This renewed diplomatic push follows a contentious US and Russia drafted blueprint for peace that European leaders criticised as too favourable to Putin.
A counterproposal was later drafted in Geneva, and Washington has since signaled a willingness to adjust its terms.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he expected the Geneva outcomes to be “hammered out” during the Florida meetings.
Kyiv is also under growing pressure from Washington to make concessions, even as Zelensky finds himself in the most politically fragile position since the war began.
Sundays talks were the first held without his influential chief of staff Andriy Yermak, who resigned after a corruption scandal.
Yermak had served as Ukraines chief negotiator and enforcer throughout the conflict.
Meanwhile, European nations remain on alert as Russias shadow campaign continues.
Last month a Royal Navy warship shadowed two Russian vessels in the English Channel, and suspicions remain high over repeated damage to Baltic Sea infrastructure.
As Putin intensifies covert operations, the debate within NATO over whether to remain reactive or act preemptively is rapidly gaining urgency.
